Champion Hurdle Update

03 February 2010

All’s fine on the Punjabi front. As they say, no news is good news.

With Nicky Henderson wrestling daily to re-arrange targets for around a hundred classy performers, he hardly needs another call from a racing manager when the horse in question is one of the few with a set plan.

Raymond Tooth’s reigning Champion might not have had ideal preparations to his two races so far, given his own requirement for excessive work at home, and the snow before his Haydock run behind Medermit.

But Punjabi has been fortunate, indeed, with the timing of those races and Wincanton’s Kingwood Hurdle should ensure he gets to his main objective fully prepared. On Saturday it’s Binocular’s turn at Sandown while favourite Zaynar’s entry is only a precaution I’m sure if last year’s beaten favourite does not stand his ground.

Henderson has had to juggle his three big-race horses but as the weather eases (sort of) Zaynar should be fine to maintain his challenge at Kelso in the Morebattle Hurdle, with Fontwell’s National Spirit as a fall-back option.

The weird thing about the whole Champion Hurdle scene is just how few real contenders, especially on this side of the Irish Sea, there are, and how little those who do count are being asked to run.

Khyber Kim’s two Cheltenham wins should finally have established him in the elite group from which the winner will come and by now his flop in last year’s County Hurdle will have been forgotten.

Mutterings that he would run in the totesport (ex Schweppes) at Newbury were seen to be fanciful when the Twiston-Davies stable did not accept for that race. Considering he would be 15lb higher than Punjabi was when runner-up in the same race two years ago before his third to Katchit in the Champion Hurdle shows how tough that would have been.

Go Native, Solwhit and Medermit are all likely to go straight to Cheltenham, leaving really only Starluck from the British side with a chance to improve his status, apart from the Henderson trio. His Kempton second, splitting Go Native and Binocular was a revelation.

Binocular’s task looks straight-forward on Saturday, except for one slight problem. Before Haydock, there was some conjecture that the other Henderson hurdler Afsoun would be there to make the running.

In the event he did, and effectively, too. True Medermit was helped as much as Punjabi and found the better speed up the straight, but it would be foolish to under-estimate the merit of Afsoun’s rallying third.

At eight Afsoun has a number of issues mainly emanating from his clear problem with jumping fences. He had a bad fall over the bigger obstacles at Newbury on his seasonal comeback, but having previously won and been second in the Haydock trial, his eventual creditable third should not have been too much of a shock.

Because it’s two years since he won a hurdle, Afsoun gets into these skilfully-framed trials – especially the Listed ones like Saturday’s toteswinger Contenders Hurdle – on favourable terms.

So while it looks as though his main role will be to ensure a pace strong enough to eliminate the “fluke” element that so many of these affairs seem to engender, the 8lb he gets from Binocular is significant.

A possible outcome is that Binocular will challenge his older colleague between the last two and not look especially impressive when going on by a couple of lengths. After all, at Saturday’s weights, on official figures, Afsoun is 1lb better in than Binocular, even after being dropped 2lb after Haydock to 156.

Afsoun was top-rated there and that is one reason why Raymond was less than “gutted” at the performance. You probably unwisely always believe you will win when you go off odds-on, but there was plenty of minor consolation, not least a decent prize for second, to fall back on.

I contend Tony McCoy has a much more complex ride to overcome than the betting will suggest. Two years ago Afsoun won the corresponding event comfortably by three and a half lengths from Straw Bear, earlier winner of the Christmas Hurdle.

Last year, when still penalised for his earlier exploits, Afsoun was third behind subsequent Champion second Celestial Halo (rec 4lb) and the 2008 Champion runner-up Osana. As at Haydock, he has a fine record on this track and if allowed too much of a lead, he could be a big threat to Binocular.

El Dancer, fifth to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood, has been tried in two novice chases since without winning and like Dee E Willams, another coming back to hurdling, has plenty to find, as do the other trio, even more so. So it has to be Binocular, but these terms give Afsoun a fighting chance to upset the odds.

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